Cause->Effect...and Effect->Cause

[Guest]

Really interesting, AlphaMo. For the main question of causality, I think cause -> effect can be more of a two-way street than is usually recognized. Instead of cause -> effect, it's more like effect <-> effect.

For example it's obvious that mental happiness influences smiling and standing straight. They have done studies that establish that smiling and standing straight also influences happiness and mental state. The link is a two-way street.

It so happens that I'm reading a book right now (The Black Swan) on uncertainty and epistemology (also bored-out-of-town-while-visiting-the-family) and one of the themes is that in the face of uncertainty (about either the future or the past), the cause-effect link is very tenuous. And humans are chronically bad at ascribing cause-effect relationships when there is nothing more than an association. Associations are important, but people wrongly identify causality all the time. Causality needs to be taken with a certain amount of skepticism.

In regard to pickup, there's the phenomenon of backwards-rationalization. She likes you, and believes she likes you [i]because[/i] you're tall or funny (for example), when in fact she likes you [i]first[/i] and then finds an explanation. Obviously, her liking you could never cause you to be tall, but it could very easily cause her to find you funnier.

I'd say your observation is right on. Things can be definitively related, but the direction of the causality is not apparent, or is even bidirectional.

The other part of what you're writing about I'd say is framing, where you project your belief, and she buys into it, or at least plays along because she wants to. There is a lot to be said on this topic so I'll just say I agree with BR, and also Smirks, that value is primary. And value should be understood broadly, including (for example) fun to talk to for now, not just money, power, etc.

[Guest]

"Two-Way Street" and "Backwards Rationalization" are the two phrases that I just couldn't find in my head when writing that post....but they are very descriptive of what I was referring to.
Thank you for them, Vector.

Also, really cool insight with regard to social epistemology.
(now I just feel like a nerd for knowing what that means off the bat)



I agree that you project value when you do have it.
But my point in my response to PC previously was that, from her vantage point, her initial judgments of you couldn't be based on whether you ACTUALLY DO have value (how could they? she doesn't know you yet?)....but rather they're based on whether she sees the effects of a person with high value. These effects could be real.....or they could be imitations.

If you and her hang out for two weeks, and it turns out you have no real value, there's no doubt in my mind that she'll figure this out very quickly.
This is why its important, in the long run, to actually have real value....although I still believe it can be faked --initially--.

Have you ever met someone (just in life in general) who turn out to be 'all talk'....but you don't pick up on it at first, it takes some time before you realize.
I'd consider myself to be pretty good at detecting non-congruency and calling out the fakes, but every once in a while someone pulls it off and I'm really impressed with them in one way or another. Then I might get to know them, and realize they couldn't live up to their reputation.

Smirks,

Thats a good point....I hadn't considered that.
(I assume you're referring to the 'where do i know you from' opener)

On some occasions she'll politely say "No, I don't think we do". Of course I don't stop there, but even still she is usually open to continuing the interaction (and I can still wind up successfully closing in one way or another).
I can't say its not possible that they're just being polite and conceding that they know me.....but I really do get a good impression sometimes that they actually think they do know me.

Allow me to contradict myself though, and throw my own argument above (about detecting value) against myself:
What am I basing that impression on? Only the signals shes giving me...I have no idea what's actually happening in her head.

[Guest]

Here's that quote I mentioned from a Playboy model:

"If he loves what he's doing, the average joe becomes gorgeous. That's how you get those situations when you see a beautiful woman and an average guy and you ask, 'How did he get her?'"